Author Archives: Andrew Johnston

Bitcoin Weathers Halving Storm, Price Holds Steady Around $63,700

The dust has settled after Bitcoin’s highly anticipated fourth block reward halving, with the world’s most popular cryptocurrency clinging to the $63,700 mark. This event, which cuts the number of new Bitcoins awarded to miners by 50%, has historically been a catalyst for price surges. While a significant jump hasn’t materialized yet, analysts remain cautiously optimistic about Bitcoin’s future trajectory.

The halving, which took place on April 19th, 2024, sliced the miner reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. This programmed scarcity is a fundamental tenet of Bitcoin’s design, aiming to mimic the finite supply of precious metals like gold. In theory, a reduced supply with consistent demand should drive prices upwards.

However, the immediate aftermath of the halving has been marked by relative stability. This could be due to several factors. Firstly, some analysts believe the market may have already “priced in” the halving, meaning the anticipation of the event had already been reflected in Bitcoin’s price leading up to it.

Secondly, there’s a growing focus on Bitcoin’s utility beyond just a store of value. The Ordinals protocol, which allows for non-fungible tokens (NFTs) to be inscribed directly onto the Bitcoin blockchain, has sparked excitement and could potentially attract new users and investment.

“This is the first halving in which major U.S. asset managers are actively educating themselves and their clients about Bitcoin,” said Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital. “There’s a growing recognition of Bitcoin’s potential as a hedge against inflation and a long-term investment.”

While the short-term price action might be muted, the halving’s long-term impact remains to be seen. Historically, significant price increases have followed halving events. After the May 2020 halving, for example, Bitcoin went on a meteoric rise, surging from $9,500 to a peak of over $65,000 within a year.

This time around, the macroeconomic environment is different. Inflation concerns and potential interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve could create headwinds for Bitcoin. However, proponents argue that Bitcoin’s unique characteristics, particularly its decentralization and limited supply, could make it an attractive asset class in times of economic uncertainty.

One key metric to watch in the coming weeks and months will be miner behavior. With their rewards halved, miners may need to adjust their operations to remain profitable. This could lead to increased competition within the mining pool, potentially driving transaction fees higher.

The recent halving marks a significant milestone in Bitcoin’s history. While the immediate price impact remains to be seen, the event has undoubtedly reignited discussions about Bitcoin’s long-term viability as a digital asset and a potential hedge against inflation. With institutional interest growing and the Ordinals protocol offering new use cases, Bitcoin’s future remains an intriguing story to watch unfold.

Fresh Batch of Emails Reignites Debate: Who is Satoshi Nakamoto?

The already perplexing question of Satoshi Nakamoto’s identity has taken another turn with the emergence of dozens of purported emails from the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin. Shared by early Bitcoin developer Martti Malmi (known by the alias Sirius), these messages offer a glimpse into Nakamoto’s thought process and interactions during the cryptocurrency’s infancy.

Malmi, who began collaborating with Nakamoto in 2009, released the emails on Github. The correspondence sheds light on Nakamoto’s technical expertise, their concerns about potential criticisms of Bitcoin (including its energy consumption), and their views on other emerging cryptocurrencies like Ripple (XRP).

The emails also hold significance in the ongoing legal battle between Craig Wright, an Australian computer scientist, and the Crypto Open Patent Alliance (COPA). Wright has repeatedly claimed to be Satoshi Nakamoto, but COPA strongly refutes this. The newly surfaced emails are being used as evidence against Wright, with COPA arguing they expose inconsistencies between his claims and Nakamoto’s actual communication style.

While the authenticity of the emails remains unverified, experts believe they hold value regardless. “Even if they aren’t definitively from Satoshi, they offer valuable insights into the early days of Bitcoin development,” says Dr. Anya Perkins, a cryptography researcher at Stanford University. “The technical discussions and the way they’re phrased align with what we know about Nakamoto’s coding style from the Bitcoin whitepaper.”

The content of the emails has sparked renewed interest in Nakamoto’s identity. Some point to the messages’ clear and concise language as evidence that Nakamoto was a native English speaker. This disrupts theories suggesting Nakamoto originated from a non-English speaking country.

However, others caution against drawing definitive conclusions. “It’s important to remember that anyone can write with a certain style,” warns investigative journalist Robert Vance, who has been following the Nakamoto mystery for years. “These emails could have been meticulously crafted by someone else trying to throw us off the trail.”

The emergence of these emails highlights the enduring fascination with Satoshi Nakamoto. Whether they provide a breakthrough or simply add another layer to the enigma remains to be seen. One thing is certain: the hunt for Bitcoin’s creator is far from over.

Roger Ver Doubles Down on BCH, Rejects Reconciliation with Bitcoin Core Dev

Veteran Bitcoin investor Roger Ver has rebuffed a recent olive branch extended by Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream and a prominent figure in Bitcoin Core development. Ver, a vocal critic of the current state of Bitcoin and a strong proponent of Bitcoin Cash (BCH), remains unconvinced that Bitcoin aligns with its original vision.

The tension stems from Ver’s recently published book, “Hijacking Bitcoin: The Hidden History of BTC.” In it, Ver argues that Bitcoin Core developers have strayed from Satoshi Nakamoto’s vision of a peer-to-peer electronic cash system, prioritizing security over scalability. This, according to Ver, has rendered Bitcoin unsuitable for mainstream adoption due to high transaction fees and slow processing times.

Following the book’s release, Back offered a reconciliatory message on Twitter, stating, “We all want Bitcoin to succeed. Let’s find common ground & build together again.” However, Ver’s response in an interview with Decrypt Media was unequivocal.

“While I appreciate the sentiment,” Ver said, “unfortunately, the core development team has taken Bitcoin in a direction that I believe is fundamentally incompatible with its original goals. Scaling solutions like Layer-2 that they promote are just sticking plasters on a bullet wound.”

Ver emphasizes his belief that Bitcoin Cash, with its larger block size and focus on transaction throughput, is the true heir to Satoshi’s vision. He points to the recent rise in BCH adoption by merchants and its overall lower transaction fees as evidence of its utility.

“Bitcoin Cash is functioning exactly as intended,” Ver asserted. “Transactions are fast and cheap, making it a viable alternative for everyday payments. We are building the peer-to-peer electronic cash system that Satoshi always envisioned.”

Ver’s comments reignite a long-standing debate within the cryptocurrency community. Bitcoin Core supporters argue that larger block sizes compromise security, while BCH proponents believe that security can be maintained with careful implementation.

This back-and-forth highlights the ongoing struggle to define Bitcoin’s future. With Ver firmly entrenched in the BCH camp, it appears the cryptocurrency landscape will continue to see competition between these two prominent forks of the original Bitcoin blockchain.

Ether Tops Bitcoin as the Largest Crypto Asset for Institutions: Bybit Research

A significant shift in the cryptocurrency landscape has emerged, with Ether (ETH) surpassing Bitcoin (BTC) as the largest single asset held by institutions, according to a recent report from Bybit Research. This news comes amidst a 33% year-to-date rally for ETH, compared to Bitcoin’s current performance.

Bybit’s report suggests that this institutional preference for Ether may be fueled by several factors, including:

  • The Dencun Upgrade: This upcoming Ethereum upgrade, expected later this year, aims to significantly improve scalability and transaction efficiency on the network. Bybit speculates that institutions are anticipating a potential upward price swing for ETH post-upgrade.
  • Deflationary Supply: Unlike Bitcoin’s capped supply of 21 million coins, the switch to a proof-of-stake consensus mechanism on Ethereum has introduced a deflationary supply. This means the total amount of ETH in circulation is actively decreasing, potentially making it more attractive to long-term investors.
  • Low Exchange Holdings: Compared to Bitcoin, a smaller portion of ETH is currently held on centralized exchanges. This suggests lower selling pressure and potentially higher future demand for the asset.
  • Increased Staking Activity: The proof-of-stake mechanism encourages users to lock up their ETH to participate in network validation and earn rewards. This reduced selling pressure further contributes to ETH’s appeal.

While institutions are heavily allocating their portfolios to both Bitcoin and Ether, with a combined 80% concentration, the report highlights a divergence in sentiment compared to retail investors. Bybit’s research suggests that retail users remain more bullish on Bitcoin, potentially due to its established reputation as the “original cryptocurrency.”

This news follows a recent report by Bernstein analysts, highlighting the growth of Ethereum’s Decentralized Finance (DeFi) ecosystem and layer-2 networks as additional factors driving ETH’s outperformance. While the future trajectory of both cryptocurrencies remains uncertain, Bybit’s research reveals a growing institutional interest in Ethereum, potentially marking a significant shift in the dynamics of the crypto market.

Ethereum Devs Scramble for Solutions as Gas Prices Keep Users at Bay: Will They Find the Magic Formula?

Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency and a major platform for decentralized applications (dApps), is facing a persistent thorn in its side: high gas prices. These fees, paid to miners for processing transactions, can often reach exorbitant levels, deterring users and hindering widespread adoption. To address this crucial issue, Ethereum developers are actively exploring various solutions, sparking heated discussions and leaving the community anxiously awaiting answers.

The problem lies in Ethereum’s current Proof-of-Work (PoW) consensus mechanism, which relies on miners solving complex computational puzzles to secure the network. This energy-intensive process creates a bottleneck, limiting the number of transactions that can be processed per second and driving up gas prices during periods of high demand.

The Ethereum community has long recognized the need for a scalability solution. Enter Ethereum 2.0, an ambitious upgrade promising a shift to a Proof-of-Stake (PoS) consensus mechanism, where validators lock up their ETH to secure the network, eliminating the need for computationally intensive mining. While some parts of Ethereum 2.0 are already live, the full transition is still underway, leaving users stuck with high gas prices in the meantime.

In light of this urgency, developers are exploring various interim solutions. One proposal involves increasing the block gas limit, essentially allowing more transactions to be included in each block. However, this approach carries the risk of centralizing the network and potentially exacerbating security vulnerabilities.

Another proposed solution involves Layer-2 scaling solutions, which essentially operate as “sidechains” to Ethereum, processing transactions off the main chain and then bridging them back. Optimism and Arbitrum are prominent examples of such Layer-2 solutions, offering faster and cheaper transactions but still limited by their dependence on the underlying Ethereum network.

Sharding, a more complex solution, envisions dividing the Ethereum blockchain into multiple shards, each processing transactions independently. This would significantly increase the network’s capacity but requires overcoming significant technical challenges before implementation.

The ongoing discussions highlight the complexities involved in finding a suitable solution. Developers must consider factors like security, decentralization, and scalability, often leading to trade-offs between different approaches. The community is actively involved in the debate, with stakeholders voicing their concerns and preferences through forums and social media.

While there’s no immediate magic bullet, the ongoing efforts by developers and the engaged community offer hope for Ethereum’s future. Finding the right balance between scalability, security, and decentralization will be crucial in attracting and retaining users, ultimately determining whether Ethereum can fulfill its potential as a platform for global innovation.

The race against high gas prices is on, and only time will tell which solution – or combination of solutions – will emerge victorious. But one thing is certain: the Ethereum community is not sitting idly by, and the quest for a scalable and accessible future for the platform continues with unwavering determination.